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Tool · Tomb Kings and Chaos elites · 17 units · 8 opponents
Old World matchup finder: what should I charge?
Old World matchup finder: pick a Tomb Kings or Warriors of Chaos elite unit and I will show you which of my eight benchmark opponents it should charge, which it should let come to it, and which fights it should avoid altogether.
How to use it: choose your unit, and the table sorts all eight opponents from your best fight to your worst. “You charge” and “They charge” are the win rates each way. Add a second unit to compare two builds against the same targets.
Which units are in it: for now, only Tomb Kings units and Warriors of Chaos elites (Chosen and Forsaken), because they are the ones I tested with the same method against the same eight opponents. Those opponents come from other armies: Cathay, Dwarfs, Skaven, Bretonnia, Beastmen, the Empire and the High Elves. I will add more armies as I test them.
| Opponent | You charge | They charge | My call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Knights of the RealmRound one (charging): 0.5 wounds dealt, 1.8 taken | 92% | 68% | Wins either way |
| 20 ClanratsRound one (charged): 2.4 wounds dealt, 1.6 taken | 66% | 84% | Wins either way |
| 9 Swordmasters of HoethRound one (charged): 1.5 wounds dealt, 2.8 taken | 49% | 83% | Let them charge |
| 3 Rat Ogres + Master MoulderRound one (charging): 0.8 wounds dealt, 3.9 taken | 81% | 65% | Wins either way |
| 20 Empire halberdiersRound one (charged): 3.0 wounds dealt, 1.9 taken | 58% | 75% | Let them charge |
| 8 IronbreakersRound one (charged): 0.3 wounds dealt, 1.5 taken | 45% | 62% | Let them charge |
| 15 Jade WarriorsRound one (charged): 1.5 wounds dealt, 2.1 taken | 36% | 52% | Hold and receive |
| 17 GorsRound one (charging): 1.2 wounds dealt, 2.5 taken | 49% | 49% | Risky either way |
Full results, including wipe-out rates, on the 22 Skeleton Warriors page.
How many simulations I ran
I ran 384,000 complete combats to feed this finder: 224,000 for seven Tomb Kings units and 160,000 for ten Chosen and Forsaken builds, 2,000 per matchup. These were the results.
Every number in my matchup finder comes from a straight frontal duel on open ground, with no magic, shooting, characters or flank charges, and every charge landed. With 2,000 fights per matchup each win rate is accurate to about ±2 points, but the model itself is the bigger source of error, so treat the calls as a starting point for your own games.
How I make each call
- Wins either way: 65% or more both charging and charged.
- Charge them: 60% or more on the charge, and at least 20 points better than when charged.
- Let them charge: 60% or more when charged, and at least 10 points better than charging.
- Avoid this fight: under 35% both ways.
Everything in between gets a softer call. I set these thresholds myself, so in my opinion the numbers matter more than the label: a 58% charge and a 62% charge are practically the same fight.
The eight opponents
Every unit here fought the same eight benchmark units, all between 135 and 150 points: 15 Jade Warriors, 8 Ironbreakers, 20 Clanrats, 3 Rat Ogres + Master Moulder, 5 Knights of the Realm, 17 Gors, 20 Empire halberdiers, 9 Swordmasters of Hoeth. I will add more units to the finder as I test them.
See the full tables on my Tomb Kings units and Chosen and Forsaken pages, or read how I run the simulations.
My conclusion
Based on these results, I would use this finder to decide which fights a unit should look for and which it should run from, and not as a prediction of who wins a real game, where positioning, magic and dice decide far more than any single duel.
FAQs
How does the matchup finder decide what to charge?
It compares your unit’s win rate when it charges with its win rate when the opponent charges. A big gap in favour of charging says “Charge them”; a unit that does better when charged gets “Let them charge”; low numbers both ways get “Avoid this fight”.
Why are some Chosen and Forsaken cells blank?
In that test, the Chaos units charged four of the opponents and received charges from the other four, so each opponent has only one direction. The Tomb Kings units fought every opponent both ways.
Can I compare two units from different armies?
Yes. Pick any two units: the finder only compares the directions I tested both units in, and it calls gaps under 5 points too close to call.